Dr Louis Arnoux
3 min readMar 21


Hi B,

Many thanks for this post and also your other recent posts. They bring a sense of sanity in terms of how to come to terms with the dangerously degrading global situation.

This is to alert you of new findings colleagues of mine and I made late last year that have a bearing on your analyses.

We have been working for many years on global oil and energy, more specifically the Oil Energy Supply System (OES) and the Global Energy Supply and Use System (GESUS) that encompasses all sources of energy all the way to deliveries to end-users in the Globalised Industrial World (GIW).

Last year we finally managed to achieve one of our objectives: having a robust handle on where the GIW stands along the net energy depletion trajectory. The findings are unpalatable to say the least - worse than what you outline in your posts.

In short, the GIW is now a whisker away from Dead State - that is, when the total energy cost of getting energy comes to equate the total gross energy extracted, i.e., not just concerning oil but energy from all other sources as well, i.e., concerning the whole of the GESUS.

The critical time horizon is around 2030, understood as a marker year, not a hard end point. The difference with our previous work is that this is no longer just about oil and the fate of the OES. It concerns the whole of the GESUS. End of GESUS means the end of the GIW, aka abrupt collapse in the near future. This prospect dwarfs everything else, in the sense that the avalanche of myriad other problems sweeping through the GIW, climate, wars and all, is but a side effect of the core thermodynamics of the GESUS. The GIW, as World Before, is de facto “dead man walking" (it’s impossible to alter its course). The World After is a blank page: it has to be invented from scratch away from what in the World Before led to the present rush towards Dead State. We have entered the “During” where the sole challenge worth tackling is to acquire the means to pass beyond Dead State - the situation is literally poetic, in the Greek sense of inventing the world anew. The stakes: the entire wealth, world wide, in high danger of being wiped out and a resounding population crash of some 6 billion people between 2020 and 2050 (Christopher Bystroff’s findings that recoup ours)… unless the (very) few of us who are conscious of the issues and have expertise to build viable, sustainable ways forward manage to demonstrate what can be done over the next few years, at most.

In previous posts you have mentioned being Hungarian, being somehow part of the "professional managerial class"(PMC) and being involved in an automotive engineering firm’s electrification department. In our experience people with your breath of knowledge, expertise and clarity of vision are not common. My colleagues and I would like to share our analyses and data with you and discuss a number of matters. We too are originally from that PMC that we are also critical of, working with it but not being part of it...

Based on a thorough understanding of the GIW's thermodynamics, systems dynamics, ecology and the critical social sciences, our work focuses on building new sound thermodynamic foundations for the "World After" that are sustainable, affordable and attractive for all involved, eventually 100% solar-based, outside both BAU and bound to fail "decarbonising with renewables". We are mounting an Initiative to demonstrate how this can be done.

We would like to discuss our findings and approach with you, in confidence. Would you please make contact with me at ofdktf1@protonmail.com, my colleagues and I would very much appreciate discussing our work with you.

All the very best,




Dr Louis Arnoux

Louis is the catalyst and main author for the Fourth Transition Initiative and Cool Planet Foundation.